2027: Why Tinubu's victory is not sure - Tokunbo Pearse


.as PDP chieftain tackles APC over alleged manoeuvring of opposition parties

By Our Reporter

Ahead of 2027 General Elections, a chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Dr Adetokunbo Pearse, has raised concerns over what he claimed as strategic manoeuvring of opposition parties by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), but quickly declared that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's victory was sure because Nigerians "are tired of Tinubu/APC's 12 years of misrule and are determined to vote PDP back for a renewed, and a re- formed Nigeria."

Pearse, a Public Affairs Analyst and also a Member, Board of Governors of the Peoples Democratic Institute (PDI), gave this position In a strongly worded statement, noting that recent developments within opposition ranks and the broader political space suggest growing anxiety within the camp of President Tinubu over his re-election prospects.

The PDP chieftain, in particular, alleged that comments attributed to the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, regarding the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) not fielding a presidential candidate in 2027, and the current efforts by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) "to derail ADC, the other growing opposition party" point to a broader strategy aimed at limiting electoral competition in the 2027 polls.

Pearse, while noting that this fear of opposition is fueled by Tinubu's understanding that the battle is far from over, argued that such positions reflected concerns within the ruling party about a united opposition.

"If President Tinubu was sure of victory in 2027, he would not be so paranoid about the opposition parties. His hatchet man, Nyesom Wike's declaration that the PDP, Nigeria's main opposition party must not field a presidential candidate in 2027 is evidence of this fear. He knows that the only way Tinubu can win re-election is if Tinubu is the only presidential candidate in 2027; no opposition candidate.

"Also, INEC, the APC's main organ of electoral manipulation is currently doing everything possible to derail ADC, the other growing opposition party. This fear of opposition is fueled by Tinubu's understanding that the battle is far from over," he said.

Pearse maintained that the PDP remained structurally positioned across the country and could still produce a formidable candidate, with Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde emerging as a potential contender from the South-West, and go on to give President Tinubu "a thorough trouncing." 

This was just as he expressed the hope that ongoing legal and political disputes involving opposition parties could ultimately be settled by the courts, referencing precedents that affirm the autonomy of political parties in determining their internal leadership and processes.

The analyst, however, maintained that, regardless of legal or institutional challenges, opposition forces could realign through alternative platforms if necessary, citing smaller political parties as possible vehicles for contesting the 2027 General Elections.

"Firstly, based on the precedence set by SDP vs INEC, it is very likely that the Supreme Court will remind INEC that the choice of party officials is an internal matter to be decided by the political parties.

"In that case, the PDP will hold its Presidential primaries. If a candidate from the South West; (Governor Seyi Makinde is looking more and more like that candidate) emergies as the PDP flag bearer, it is very likely that he will give Tinubu a thorough trouncing. 

"With the worst case scenario in which the Supreme Court rules against the PDP, rejecting its Ibadan National Convention of 15/16 November 2025, the PDP leadership will decide whether to utilise existing platforms such as Siriake Dickson's National Democratic Congress (NDC), or Hon. Ada Okwori's National Democratic Party (NDP)," Pearse said.

"The ADC is already putting pressure on Tinubu by engaging international Lobbyists to expose the illegal attempts of the Tinubu administration to deregister it. 

"As for the Peoples Democratic Party, with its entrenched structures in every ward and in every local government area in the federation, all it has to do is to decide on its preferred political party with which to prosecute the 2027 elections. 

"As Governor Makinde of Oyo State put it, 'Tinubu and his APC have INEC, they have the governors, the police and the Judiciary, but we in the PDP have the people.' And the people are tired of Tinubu/APC's 12 years of misrule and are determined to vote PDP back for a renewed, and a re- formed Nigeria," he concluded.

While these claims remain part of ongoing political discourse, the APC has repeatedly dismissed allegations of undermining opposition parties, insisting that Nigeria’s democratic institutions remain intact and that the electoral process will be transparent.

With more than a year to the next general elections, analysts say the evolving dynamics signal an early start to what is expected to be a fiercely contested political battle.

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